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The old adage is that in “rivalry games,” you can throw the records out the window.
The thinking is that with emotions so high, adrenaline flowing throughout the afternoon, it matters not the skill level or overall quality of the respective clubs. It’s simply a battle of wills, who wants it more, and which squad is willing to make the ultimate sacrifice.
But it’s really just a bunch of malarkey.
The records do matter. The coaches matter. The team’s previous games and how they performed in them matter.
Which brings us to this Saturday afternoon in East Lansing.
Only, it really takes us back to November 2nd, 2002, at Michigan Stadium. That is what this year’s clash will most likely resemble.
On that day, the Spartans limped into Ann Arbor with a 2-5 record. They’d won just one Big Ten game in four tries.
The program was in dire straits.
Quarterback Jeff Smoker was suspended, putting unproven Damon Dowdell under center. Bobby Williams was the oft-criticized head coach, firmly on the hot seat seemingly every week.
Michigan State trudged into the Big House that day and got clocked. The Spartans kicked a field goal to open the scoring, then watched as Lloyd Carr’s crew tallied seven straight touchdowns. A 49 to 3 final.
John Navarre played like John Elway. Dowdell was overmatched. And following the game, Carr did his best to try and keep Williams at the helm in East Lansing for as long as he possibly could.
Somehow, with a straight face, Carr told the media, “I think it’s very, very important that Bobby Williams be given an opportunity to fulfill his contract (five more years) at Michigan State.”
Just one coach looking out for another, right? Yeah, and if you believe that, I’ve also got some swampland in Florida to sell you.
Shoe on Other Foot
In essence, tomorrow’s game sets up the exact same as that Ann Arbor massacre 12 years ago. Only this time, the shoe is on the other foot.
Michigan State is the national powerhouse. They are the 8th ranked team in the country. They find themselves in prime position to run the table and wind up as one of four schools selected to play in the sport’s very first post-season playoff.
Michigan comes into the game armed with a meager offense, a headset-less coach, and a recent history in this rivalry that is less than inspiring.
Since Lloyd Carr left office, there have been six UM-MSU meetings. The Wolverines have emerged victorious once.
In order for 2014 to somehow become the year that the balance of power shifts back to Pizza Bob and Fielding Yost, too many things would have to occur.
Devin Gardner would need to channel his inner-Denard Robinson and become the dual threat he was always thought to be.
Hoke would need to formulate an ultra-creative game plan, employing trick plays, gimmick defenses, and a complex system by which a player besides Devin Funchess catches a meaningful pass at any point in the afternoon.
And lastly, the Spartans would need to miss the game entirely. Just not show up. Maybe forget to set all the alarms. Experience a massive traffic jam in the half mile from the Kellogg Center to the stadium.
Something completely unlikely, almost supernatural, would need to occur for this outcome to have Blue over Green at the final gun.
History is set to repeat itself Saturday in East Lansing.
It might not get ugly to the point of 49-3 like in 2002, but it’s probably not going to be close and it sure won’t be pretty.
This rivalry might one day restore its competitiveness and dramatic quality.
But it’s going to take a slight fall from MSU and a giant leap from U of M.
Not exactly the kind of change that happens overnight.
