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The Detroit Pistons are actually heading back to the playoffs.
Okay, so it’s not official yet, but the situation is akin to a high school student carrying an A heading into the final with a 98% and needing to answer one measly question correctly on the exam to lock up the grade.
That’s the Pistons. They have three games to play, and they hold a healthy three-game cushion on the reeling Chicago Bulls. The Pistons can win one game and clinch a playoff spot, or get there with just one Bulls loss.
But that doesn’t mean the fight is over. In fact, the Pistons are very much in need of all three of these wins down the stretch.
See, the Pistons trail the Indiana Pacers by a half-game for the 7-seed in the East. Both teams have 42 wins, but the Detroiters have one more loss. Normally, this might not represent such a difference, if any at all.
You get in the playoffs as one of the bottom seeds and you expect to see a top notch opponent right out of the gate. You’re a giant underdog regardless, so what’s the big deal if you enter the tournament as a 7 instead of an 8 seed?
In the Eastern Conference in 2016, there’s a major difference between the two spots. And the reason for that is one man: LeBron James.
Got to Stay Out of the 8
As the 8-seed, you get LeBron and the Cavs in Round One. As the 7-seed, you get DeMar DeRozan and the Raptors.
In looking at the standings, you’d think that both teams present a similar degree of difficulty in pulling the opening round upset. The Cavs are a very good, but not otherworldly 56-23. The Raps are close behind at 52-26. But only one of those teams has a player that has advanced to the NBA Finals each of the last five seasons. And that player would be the aforementioned King of the Eastern Conference, Sir LeBron James.
When a guy takes his team to the championship round for five consecutive years, the chances of his squad suddenly getting trounced in the first round are next to none. Those first series are just a tuneup for LeBron. Consider these past opening playoff “battles”:
2015 - LeBron (Cavs) defeats Celtics 4-0
2014 - LeBron (Heat) defeats Bobcats 4-0
2013 - LeBron (Heat) defeats Bucks 4-0
2012 - LeBron (Heat) defeats Knicks 4-1
2011 - LeBron (Heat) defeats 76ers 4-1
2010 - LeBron (Cavs) defeats Bulls 4-1
2009 - LeBron (Cavs) defeats Will Bynum (Pistons) 4-0
You get the point. Being a first-round opponent for the team LeBron James plays for doesn’t just mean you will lose. It means you will lose, and lose badly.
So while the Pistons can trumpet their 2-1 record this year against Cleveland, it means zilch once you enter postseason play. Stan Van Gundy’s crew gets the Cavs in the season finale down in Ohio, and that could wind up being a must-win to avoid seeing that same team again just a couple days later.
The Lions Parallel
It brings to mind a similar situation from the Detroit Lions in 2011.
The Leos were heading to the playoffs for the first time in forever, but they still had one more regular season game to play. The only thing that could be affected by the game’s outcome was who the Lions would travel to play in the playoffs’ opening round.
With a win, the Lions would head to New York to play the Giants. Of course, the Giants have had their share of moments in the postseason the last decade, winning two Super Bowls, but still they never seemed like an unbeatable opponent.
But with a loss, it would mean a trip to New Orleans. The Saints were 8-0 at home that year. Drew Brees was at the peak of his powers. A Gunther Cunningham-led Lions defense was not going to invade the Superdome, put a lid on the Saints offense, and come away with a victory.
So that meant the Lions had to do their part and finish the regular season the right way. Thankfully for them, the Green Bay Packers were on tap and they had already clinched the NFC’s best record. League MVP Aaron Rodgers would be holding a clipboard for the season finale and the Packers would just be trying to get through 60 minutes without injury, a win being of little importance.
But the Lions are always capable of inspiring performances that defy any logic or reason. Unfortunately on this day, such a performance came from the other side. Journeyman backup quarterback Matt Flynn, in just his second NFL start, took the ball for the Packers that day and became some type of cross between Dan Marino and God.
He passed for 480 yards. He threw for SIX touchdowns. And of course, the Packers ultimately won the game, 45-41.
To the surprise of not a single person, the Lions made the dreaded trip to N’awlins the following weekend and got thrashed 45-28. The playoff appearance was nice and all after such a long time away, but after the Packers loss, it never felt like there was any chance that the postseason stay would last more than four quarters.
Critical Final Week
Which brings us back to the here and now with our Detroit Pistons.
While the NBA Playoffs don’t get going for a week or two, it is imperative Reggie Jackson and Co. kick it into high gear now. Playing out the string these last few games will ensure a fate similar to that of the ’11 Lions.
It’s not to suggest that a first round date with Toronto would be a stress-free affair. The Raptors have been one of the most consistent squads all year and their backcourt of DeRozan and Kyle Lowry is one of the top two or three tandems in the league at that spot. If the Pistons were to meet Toronto, the chance for victory would be small, but it would be still be there in some reasonable capacity.
The same cannot be said for a matchup with LeBron. Not only are the Cavs playing some of their best basketball of the season, it’s also likely that if the Pistons were ever to get up by a game or two in the series, the NBA would intervene and send out a Game 5 refereeing crew of Drew Carey, Craig Ehlo, and one of those psychotic fans from the “Dawg Pound.” A series win over the Cavs is not a possibility.
The Pistons’ final three games could be a bit tricky. Tonight’s home tilt with the Wizards should be a win. The Wiz have essentially fallen out of the playoff race and there’s a chance they could also be without their best player, John Wall (swollen knee). But following that are a couple of games that could be very tough or very easy depending on who suits up on the other side.
The Pistons finish with a home date against Miami and a roadie at Cleveland. Both teams have obviously locked up playoff berths, but Miami is still tussling with Boston for home court, and the Cavs might want to end the season with a bang. But with the recent trend of NBA teams sitting star players to ensure proper rest, the Pistons might catch a break and avoid a Dwyane Wade or LeBron sighting down the stretch.
Hats off to the Pistons for (almost officially) nailing down a spot in the playoffs for the first time in seven years. It’s a big deal for the franchise and it will be a fun change of pace for Detroit hoop fans to actually have a rooting interest in the NBA postseason. But for how long that rooting interest will be in existence could come down to this last week of the regular season.
After tonight’s game with Washington, the Pistons could have their ticket punched for the playoffs. But their work will not be over. They’ll need to keep winning to give themselves not only a chance at a postseason showing, but maybe an extended stay into Round Two and beyond.
LeBron James is not some superhuman basketball-playing force that wins the NBA title every year. He will often get stopped, either in the Finals or right on the doorstep.
But the man does not lose in Round One. The Pistons would be wise to do everything in their power to avoid such a meeting.
If history is any indication, it would be anything but pleasant.
