As of writing, here is what the best polling analysts and aggregators say the presidential race currently looks like according to state-by-state polling data.
FiveThirtyEight/Nate Silver: Silver’s “Now-cast” regression analysis awards Obama 308.5 Electoral Votes and Romney 237.4 EVs, if the election were held today. He gives Obama a 83.0% chance of winning the November election. (Week over week: Obama +15.2 EV)
RealClearPolitics: Obama 221, Romney 191, 126 up for grabs in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin. (Week over week: No change)
HuffPost Pollster: Obama 247, Romney 191, 116 up for grabs in Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. (Week over week: Obama +16 EV)
Electoral-Vote.com: 347 Obama (172 “Strongly Dem,” 87 “Likely Dem,” 88 “Barely Dem”) Romney 191 (142 “Strongly GOP,” 49 “Likely GOP,” 0 “Barely GOP”) According to the site: “strong means support of 10% or more; weak means 5% to 9%, and barely means less than 5%.” (Week over week: Obama +15 EV)
CNN: Obama 237, Romney 191, 110 up for grabs in Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. (Week over week: No change)
Fox News/Karl Rove: Obama 225, Romney 191, 122 up for grabs in Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. (Week over week: No change)
MSNBC: Obama 237, Romney 191, 110 up for grabs in Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. (Week over week: No change)
