The Road To 270: The State Of The Presidential Race On 10/01/2012

Electoral-Vote.com's polling map on Oct. 1, 2008.

October 1st, 2012, 10:58 AM

Nate Silver/FiveThirtyEight: Silver’s “Now-cast” regression analysis awards Obama 338.3 Electoral Votes and Romney 199.7 EVs. Silver gives Obama a 98.1% chance of winning the election, if it were held today. (Week over week: Obama +7.9 EV)

RealClearPolitics: Obama 265, Romney 191, 82 up for grabs in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Virginia. (Week over week: Obama +18 EV)

HuffPost Pollster: Obama 332, Romney 191, 16 up for grabs in North Carolina. (Week over week: Obama +9 EV)

Electoral-Vote.com: 347 Obama (199 “Strongly Dem,” 76 “Likely Dem,” 72 “Barely Dem”) Romney 191 (158 “Strongly GOP,” 33 “Likely GOP,” 0 “Barely GOP.” According to the site: “strong means support of 10% or more; weak means 5% to 9%, and barely means less than 5%.” (Week over week: Obama +19 EV)

CNN: Obama 237, Romney 191, 110 up for grabs in Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. (Week over week: No change)

Fox News/Karl Rove: Obama 247, Romney 191, 100 up for grabs in Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. (Week over week: Obama +6 EV)

MSNBC: Obama 243, Romney 191, 104 up for grabs in Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. (Week over week: Obama +6 EV)