The Road To 270: The State Of The Presidential Race On 10/23/2012

October 23rd, 2012, 4:47 PM

Nate Silver/FiveThirtyEight: Silver’s “Now-cast” regression analysis awards Obama 289 Electoral Votes and Romney 249 EVs. Silver gives Obama an 88.6% chance of winning the election, if it were held today. (Week over week: Obama 4.y EV)

RealClearPolitics: Obama 201, Romney 206, 131 up for grabs in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin. (Week over week: Romney +15 EV)

HuffPost Pollster: Obama 253, Romney 191, 94 up for grabs in Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire. (Week over week: Undecided +33 EV)

Electoral-Vote.com: 281 Obama (210 “Strongly Dem,” 27 “Likely Dem,” 44 “Barely Dem”) Romney 244 (134 “Strongly GOP,” 46 “Likely GOP,” 64 “Barely GOP,” 13 exactly tied. According to the site: “strong means support of 10% or more; weak means 5% to 9%, and barely means less than 5%.” (Week over week: Romney +5 EV)

Fox News/Karl Rove: Obama 184, Romney 169, 185 up for grabs in Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Tennessee, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. (Week over week: Romney +10 EV)

Princeton Election Consortium: Obama 290 (237 "safe"), Romney 288 (191 "safe"), 13 up for grabs in Virginia. (Week over week: Obama +10 EV)

PBS NewsHour: Obama 247, Romney 206, 85 up for grabs in Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Florida. (Week over week: No Change)