The Road To 270: The State Of The Presidential Race On 10/29/2012
Nate Silver/FiveThirtyEight: Silver’s “Now-cast” regression analysis awards Obama 299.8 Electoral Votes and Romney 238.2 EVs. Silver gives Obama an 80.1% chance of winning the election, if it were held today. (Week over week: Obama +9.8 EV)
RealClearPolitics: Obama 201, Romney 191, 146 up for grabs in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Wisconsin. (Week over week: Undecided +15 EV)
HuffPost Pollster: Obama 277, Romney 206, 50 up for grabs in Colorado, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire. (Week over week: Obama +24, Romney +15 EV)
Electoral-Vote.com: 280 Obama (200 “Strongly Dem,” 32 “Likely Dem,” 53 “Barely Dem”) Romney 235 (142 “Strongly GOP,” 49 “Likely GOP,” 44 “Barely GOP,” 23 exactly tied in Iowa, Virgina, New Hampshire. According to the site: “strong means support of 10% or more; weak means 5% to 9%, and barely means less than 5%.” (Week over week: "Exactly Tied" +10 EV)
Fox News/Karl Rove: Obama 184, Romney 169, 185 up for grabs in Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Tennessee, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. (Week over week: No Change)
Princeton Election Consortium: Obama 305 (237 "safe"), Romney 233 (191 "safe"), 42 up for grabs in Virginia and Florida. (Week over week: Obama +15 EV)
PBS NewsHour: Obama 247, Romney 206, 85 up for grabs in Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Florida. (Week over week: No Change)
On a recent "Road to 270" post a commenter asked who decides which candidate gets the "up for grabs" electoral votes. States that are up for grabs currently do not have a clear front-runner. That is all that phrase means. Voters in all up for grabs states, in fact voters in all 50 states, will make their presidential "decision" on Election Day. A well-informed electorate and all of that...sigh.
