Photo: Top L-R: Fred Durhall III, Tod Perkins, Mary Sheffield, Saunteel Jenkins. Bottom L-R: Jonathan Barlow, Rev. Solomon Kinloch Jr., James Craig. (Not pictured: Joel Hasshiim).
The latest poll, with just two weeks to go before the Aug. 5 Detroit mayoral primary, shows Detroit City Council President Mary Sheffield with a commanding lead, while former Council President Saunteel Jenkins and Rev. Solomon Kinloch Jr. are locked in a dead heat for the second spot.
Former Police Chief James Craig, once considered one of the top contenders in the race, has shown a sharp drop in the polls since February.
The poll, conducted by Target Insyght of Lansing, shows:
- Sheffield: 34 percent
- Jenkins: 17 percent
- Kinloch: 16 percent
Other candidates in the poll include:
- City Councilman Fred Durhal III: 6 percent
- Former Police Chief James Craig: 6 percent
- Attorney Todd Perkins: 4 percent
- Retired businessman Joel Hasshiim: 1 percent
- Entrepreneur Jonathan Barlow: Less than 1 percent
The poll of 400 voters, taken between July 8–10, has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
Of the Target Insyght polls conducted in February, May, and now July, Sheffield, Perkins, and Hasshiim have shown little change in support. For example, Sheffield had 34 percent in February and remains at 34 percent now. The same goes for Perkins, who held steady at 4 percent. Hasshiim went from 0 percent in February to 1 percent now.
However, other candidates showed significant fluctuations during that period.
Jenkins rose from 12 percent in February to 17 percent; Durhal jumped from 1 percent to 6 percent; and Craig dropped dramatically from 20 percent in February to just 6 percent in July.
Ed Sarpolus, executive director of Target Insyght, says Sheffield’s lead can be attributed to name recognition, strong support among female voters—who make up more than 60 percent of the electorate—and her fundraising advantage.
Among Black voters, the poll shows Sheffield with 36 percent support, followed by Jenkins and Kinloch with 19 percent each. Another 14 percent are undecided.
Sarpolus noted that White voters in the city may ultimately decide who secures the second spot. The poll shows Sheffield with the highest support among White voters at 33 percent, followed by Craig with 16 percent; Jenkins and Durhal with 15 percent each; Perkins with 4 percent; and Kinloch with 3 percent. Another 13 percent remain undecided.
“The surprise is that White voters are split between Jenkins and Durhal, with James Craig losing half of his support among White voters,” said Sarpolus.
He added that Durhal has benefited from a recent endorsement by the Detroit Regional Chamber, which has elevated his profile in the race.
“The Detroit Chamber of Commerce may have given Fred Durhal the opportunity to determine who comes in second, with Durhal hoping it will be him,” Sarpolus said.
“If Fred Durhal draws White voters from Jenkins, it will benefit Kinloch. If Saunteel Jenkins draws White voters from Durhal or gains support from undecided voters, the advantage goes to Jenkins.”
