Poll Shows Biden Leading Trump in Michigan by a 45-41 Margin

January 12, 2024, 2:10 PM by  Allan Lengel

President Biden and Ex-President Trump

With the general election just 10 months away, a poll released Friday shows President Joe Biden leading ex-President Donald Trump in Michigan by a margin of 45-41 percent. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The poll conducted by Target Insyght of Lansing shows Trump with a 56 percent unfavorable rating and a 38 percent favorable one. Another 6 percent were undecided.

Conversely, Biden has a 43 percent favorable rating and a 51 percent unfavorable one, with 5 percent undecided.

The poll of 800 people, conducted Jan. 4-11, included 42 percent Republicans 43 percent Democrats and 16 percent Independents. 

Ed Sarpolus, executive director of Target Insyght said the poll shows that Biden has a much stronger grip on his Democratic base than Trump does with the Republicans. 

"As Nikki Haley has been moving up in the polls, the Trump vote is softening," Sarpolus said. "Biden's base is much stronger than Trump's."

Specifically, the poll shows 79 percent of the Republican voters in Michigan support Trump, with 18 percent undecided. As for Biden, 90 percent of the Democrats favor him, with only 2 percent undecided.

The Independent vote, according to the poll, is far closer, with 32 percent favoring Trump and 28 percent Biden. The biggest chunk, 39 percent, is undecided.

Sarpolus said the election in Michigan is going to come down to "soft Republicans and Independents."

The poll is a sharp contrast to a WDIV/Detroit News poll released the other day that showed Trump leading Biden by 8 percentage points.

The poll asked Republicans' their top issue: 

  • 38 percent: Immigration:  
  • 15 percent: Taxes and Government spending 
  • 13 percent: Inflation
  • 10 percent: Jobs and the economy
  • 10 percent: Healthcare
  • 3 percent: Israel-Hamas
  • 3 percent:  Healthcare
  • 3 percent: Abortion
  • 1 percent: Climate/Environment 
  • 14 percent -- Undecided

Democrats' Top Issue: 

  • 33 percent: Climate/Environment
  • 13 percent: Healthcare
  • 12 percent: Abortion
  • 8 percent: Jobs/Economy
  • 7 percent: Israel/Hamas
  • 6 percent: Inflation
  • 4 percent: Immigration
  • 3 percent: Taxes and Government Spending
  • 15 percent: Undecided

Independents' top issue: 

  • 21 percent: Immigration
  • 18 percent: Healthcare
  • 11 percent: Inflation
  • 10 percent: Taxes and Government Spending
  • 5 percent: Climate/Environment
  • 3 percent: Jobs/Economy
  • 1 percent: Israel/Hamas 
  • 27 percent: Undecided


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