Chad Selweski covered state and regional politics for The Macomb Daily for nearly 30 years, earning 50 honors from journalism organizations, including national Suburban Journalist of the Year Award. He is a contributor to Deadline Detroit.
By Chad Selweski
Though the dust remains far from settled and three candidates already jumped into the race, U.S. Rep. Candice Miller’s surprise decision to call it quits could lead to such a fierce Republican primary battle for the open seat that a Democrat might have a shot at winning in the GOP-dominated 10th District.
Beyond the presidential contest, the fight for the 10th District – comprised of several suburban and rural counties just north of Detroit, including Macomb County – will almost certainly take center stage in the 2016 Michigan elections. A field of six or eight top-tier Republicans likely will enter the fray, engaging in a monumental clash of egos, while Democrats may quietly coalesce around a single candidate.
It’s still the GOP’s race to lose – and they might find a way to do just that.
Miller, a Harrison Township Republican, scored re-election wins by landslide proportions since first capturing the seat in 2002.
As political pundit Jack Lessenberry observed, the 60-year-old incumbent could have kept her post “until her dentures fell out.”
But Miller not only decided it was time to return home from Washington, she took the unusual step of making her announcement on March 5, some 20 months before the next election.
That set the stage for a potential long, slow boil within the Republican Party, with volatile Macomb County politics at the center of the simmer.
GOP candidates already in the running are state Sen. Phil Pavlov of St. Clair County, who represents a tiny portion of Macomb; Shelby Township Treasurer Mike Flynn whose suburban Macomb hometown is, surprisingly, the largest community in the district; and a member of a prominent Macomb family, former state senator Alan Sanborn of the Richmond area, who announced the formation of an exploratory committee on Friday.
Bitter Skirmishes in Macomb County
Others are sure to follow. The biggest concern for GOP party leaders should be that the frequent bitter skirmishes in Macomb since 2010 between the tea party and the Republican establishment in Macomb will ignite an all-out war in the 10th District.
Bare-knuckled politics is a blood sport in Macomb County. Snarkiness rules the roost. If we make it through the entire campaign without seeing a salivating dog in an anti-Pavlov attack ad, I will be amazed.
The stakes are high because, as one Republican analyst put it, “an open seat this good, this Republican, doesn’t come along very often.”
The district stretches from Sterling Heights to the tip of the Thumb Area. It comprises the northern half of Macomb County plus St. Clair, Lapeer, Huron, Tuscola and Sanilac counties. The Macomb portion represents nearly half of the vote in GOP primaries and the 10th District overall rates as pro-Republican by a plus-five margin, which means Mitt Romney’s 55 percent support there in November 2012 was par for the course.
Yet, if a large contingent of Republicans pummels each other for months and the primary produces a stunningly low 10th District turnout like the 55,000 votes cast in 2014, the wounded GOP nominee who emerges may begin the general election campaign against the Democrats as considerably less than a clear frontrunner.
The Tea Party
While the tea party folks are almost certain to run a favorite son (or daughter) in the primary, additional likely contenders on the establishment side, all with ties to Macomb County, include combative state Sen. Jack Brandenburg of Harrison Township, state Rep. Andrea LaFontaine of Columbus Township and former state representative Pete Lund of Shelby Township.
It remains to be seen which of the many candidates has the fundraising ability to run a competitive congressional race.
The tea party’s choice could be controversial state Rep. Todd Courser of Lapeer, a newly elected House member who is fond of bashing GOP leaders, including Congresswoman Miller, and who routinely cites Christianity when discussing issues. A Second Amendment zealot, Courser would undoubtedly come out with guns blazing.
The wild card in all this early jockeying for position is Leon Drolet, an openly gay former state representative who runs a statewide anti-tax group out of his Macomb Township home. Drolet often partakes in online fisticuffs with Courser and others who oppose LGBT rights.
With Courser and Drolet in the lineup, the contest could quickly take on an ugly tone, with hot-button social issues dominating the playing field.
Miller vowed to stay neutral in the primary fight for her seat, but one factor that could mobilize the Miller team under the radar would be a surge by Courser that put him on a path toward a possible victory.
One other 2016 twist or turn that could rile Miller into high-profile action is a typical Macomb County name-game campaign by the Democratic side.
In addition to state Rep. Henry Yanez of Sterling Heights, a top prospect for the Dems is former state representative and current Macomb County Commissioner Fred Miller of Mount Clemens – no relation to the outgoing incumbent.
Fred Miller asserts that the GOP has been lulled by Candice Miller’s strong support among independent voters into believing that the 10th District remains untouchable Republican territory. What Commissioner Miller doesn’t mention – and does not hint would be a part of his strategy -- is that he would surely benefit from familiar campaign signs populating the district that simply stated, “Miller for Congress.”
A longtime aide to the retiring congresswoman said that approach would inspire a furious response from Candice Miller.
“If they want to play the name-game,” he said, “then the real Miller will be very clearly involved in that kind of battle.”
Rather than a dust-up, this fight could become a mudslinger’s delight.
